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Real estate prices in India expected to rise over next 6 months

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The IIM B Magicbricks (MB) Housing Sentiment Index remains positive across 8 of the 10 cities surveyed with Mumbai turning positive for the first time and Bangalore surging ahead

The Housing Sentiment Index (IIMB MB HSI) assessed by IIM Bangalore and Magicbricks forecasts that home buyers across 8 of the 10 cities surveyed expect real estate prices to rise over the next six months. The aggregate Housing Sentiment Index (HSI) measured across 10 cities this quarter stood at 108. (An HSI score of 100 suggests the prices would remain static). This quarter, the IIMB MB HSI buyer index includes two more cities, Ahmedabad and Kolkata, apart from Mumbai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Pune, Noida, Gurgaon, Bangalore and Chennai.

“The Indian real estate is bound to remain attractive in the medium term with faster growth expected in the Tier II cities. Competitively priced urban pockets such as Noida, where robust supply is backed with a promise of better infrastructure, received a thumbs-up from end users. However, active interest will take another 6-9 months as consumers expect prices to go up only after six months, post the 2014 elections,” explains Sudhir Pai, Business Head, Magicbricks.

Mumbai posted an HSI of 106, turning positive for the first time. Healthy demand from Navi Mumbai and Thane resulted in this gain. Infrastructure developments in Navi Mumbai including the Trans Harbor Link and the proposed Greenfield International Airport are turning this location into an attractive investment option.

Bangalore topped the list of cities with an HSI of 140 witnessing a further 15% jump in HSI from the previous quarter. Strong demand from the IT sectors and comparatively affordable prices make this city an attractive option.

Bangalore topped the list of cities with an HSI of 140 witnessing a further 15% jump in HSI from the previous quarter. Strong demand from the IT sectors and comparatively affordable prices make this city an attractive option.

Hyderabad, with an HSI of 97 witnessed a 4% drop this quarter. The Telangana issue weighed down sentiments in this city.

The Seller Survey introduced last quarter rose by 5% to 164 this quarter. Of the sellers, 38% are doing so to book profits while 30% want a bigger accommodation. Of the respondents, 24% are looking to sell property in the Rs 20-40 lakh range. 

Key Findings of the Jan-Mar 2014 Report

The National HSI remained positive at 108 and includes 10 cities beginning this quarter

Mumbai witnessed positive HSI of 106 for the first time mainly due to surge in demand in Navi Mumbai

Bangalore, with an HSI of 140, posted a further increase of 15% compared to the previous quarter

The Telangana issue continued to weigh down sentiments in Hyderabad and dragged HSI down to 97, a drop of 4% from the previous quarter

The Seller Index witnessed a 5% increase to post an HSI of 164.

Summarizing the findings, Uma Sitaraman, Lead Researcher, IIMB-Century Real Estate Research Initiative (CRERI), said: “While the average waiting time has dropped to a little over 8 months this quarter, the range-bound increase witnessed across cities and sectors indicate that people are waiting for the election results to make real estate decisions. Clarity will set in based the election results and well after the new Government takes charge.”

Properties in the Rs 20-40 lakh range continue to be preferred with over 30% buyers in this range. Apartments are the preferred housing type with over 70% choosing to buy apartments.

The complete IIMB MB HSI report is available for free download:  http://www.magicbricks.com/iimb-hsi/

IIMB MB HSI Indexation Methodology:

The IIMB MB HSI is based on the “Diffusion Index” methodology, widely used to capture market sentiments globally. HSI is calculated by taking the difference of the total positive and negative sentiments after adjusting the magnitude of neutral responses and other biases inherent in survey-based work. The value of HSI can range from 0 to 200. A score of 100 represents neutrality, meaning people do not expect house prices to either increase or decrease. A score of 200 indicates that all respondents expect house prices to increase. A score of 0 indicates that all respondents expect house prices to decrease.

This index is based on an online survey of prospective homebuyers after careful screening by MB and IIMB. The survey questionnaire has been designed to accurately capture buyer sentiment on house prices, the degree to which he/she thinks house prices will move, micro market preferences within each city and basic demographic information including buyer preferences for type of property and financing methods. A seller survey was introduced last quarter to compare the buyer and seller sentiments.

About the IIMB MB HSI:

The IIMB MB HSI is a sentiment index of the Indian real estate market that aims to capture the buyer ‘mood’ and serve as an indicator of residential real estate market performance. The first inaugural report was released in the month of October 2013 and captured sentiments across eight cities. The latest report covers 10 cities and includes a comparative Seller’s Survey as well.

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